Well ahead of the deadline for the 2022 draft class to receive rookie extension, Walker Kessler confirmed at Media Day that no such extension is in the cards. Kessler’s visible frustration when responding to questions about it led many fans to compare this perceived mistreatment to how Utah jerked around Gordon Hayward: Is Utah alienating Kessler in a way that will permanently sour him and induce him to leave the first chance he gets?

The situations are simply not the same. Kessler’s non-extension is purely about responsible cap management, rather than living on the knife’s edge by daring Hayward to prove he’s really worth what he thinks he should be paid. Kessler should get quickly paid by Utah next summer every dime that he’s worth, and everyone will be fine and happy.

First, let’s clarify the Kessler cap strategy angle. For the second time in a week, Zach Lowe expressed indignant bewilderment as to a Utah Jazz decision on roster management.  

“Inexplicably, with two weeks to go, Walker Kessler and the Jazz were like ‘No, we’re too far apart, we can’t possibly come to a middle ground about this nice NBA starting center who’s, like, pretty good.’ I don’t get it.” 

Well, let’s uncover what Utah is doing for Mr. Lowe. Tony Jones of The Athletic covered the strategy piece of this just fine so I encourage you to read more of the super details there, but allow me to summarize the main issue and add a little of my own color:

• The Utah Jazz have about $44 million in cap space available to them next summer, which already includes Kessler’s ~$14.6 million default cap hold as a free agent.
• Very, very few teams have viable paths to significant cap space next summer. Does that mean Utah is signing Kevin Durant? Of course not, but that much cap space can be used in highly creative and hugely impactful ways to immediately improve the roster, including by easily trading for expensive players. Utah is closer to competitiveness than most think, but they have to use the cap space wisely. 
• If Utah gave Kessler an extension now, every dollar above that $14.6 million figure would immediately chip away at the $44 million in cap space. Sign Kessler to an extension that starts at $30.6 million? Now the Jazz suddenly only have $28 million in cap space. 
• If Utah waits until next summer to give Kessler his new contract, the Jazz can gobble up all of their available cap space first and then have Kessler sign the paperwork; Utah doesn’t have to use cap space for the Kessler deal, only to reserve his rights via the cap hold.

So it really doesn’t make sense for Utah, or any team in this position, to give Kessler a fair extension now. If Kessler was like a $17 million per year player? Eh, yeah, I think you’d see a deal easily get done now—the extra $2-4 million in cap space isn’t really going to move the needle next summer. But Kessler’s deal is going to clock in way higher than that, so unless Kessler wants a check now and is willing to take a massive discount to do so, he’s going to have to wait.

Hayward's situation was very different. For one, the whole Hayward nonsense occurred during restricted free agency. Or, next summer as it would be for Kessler. Restricted free agency is always a tense time between player and team, but, man, did Utah really turn the screws on Hayward, unnecessarily so. Let’s take an uncomfortable trip down memory lane.

Hayward just finished a breakout—yet admittedly inefficient—2013 season where he showed a credible (not guaranteed!) development path towards a viable second-ish banana on a good basketball team. The prevailing sentiment at the time from the outside was that it was slightly risky to back the money truck up for Hayward, but, since he showed clear improvement every year and didn’t collapse under the focused attention and pressure as a number one option, Utah should just pay the man and show him that they believe and trust in him. 

Dennis Lindsey and the Jazz did not do that! Since the development curve for Hayward was a bit slower, Utah didn’t think Hayward would actually command a max contract in restricted free agency. So instead of just paying Hayward a max deal and keeping the trust between the two sides, they forced him to do a ridiculous roadshow where Charlotte gladly offered him the max. Utah, of course, had to match the offer sheet to keep him. 

This, very understandably, annoyed Hayward! If Utah was immediately prepared to match a max offer sheet, why make him go through the steps to fetch the contract like a dog chasing a tennis ball? Also, Utah could offer a 5-year deal from their desk, and every other team could only offer Hayward a 4-year deal. This detail meant that Hayward lost even more money than what he was trying to get from Utah. Hayward ended up getting the last laugh, as he convinced Charlotte to make the 4th year of the offer sheet a player option, so he could get back on the market after just three more Jazz seasons. He used this freedom to reunite with his former college coach Brad Stevens in Boston. If Utah didn’t jerk him around and simply gave him a 5-year deal with no player option, there's an alternate reality where Hayward and a young Donovan Mitchell have their Jazz careers overlap by two years. Alas. 

There are no overtures that Utah is unwilling to pay Kessler or that they will play a super hardball restricted free agency game with him next summer. Teams are really being strict with restricted free agents in the current CBA, as we’ve seen with Josh Giddey (finally signed a fair new deal, but late), Jonathan Kuminga, (ultimately signed a 1-plus-1) and Quentin Grimes (eventually had to settle for his qualifying offer) just this summer.

So I certainly expect Utah to negotiate with Kessler at least a little bit. The lack of cap space of other teams combined with unclear development paths has led to teams exercising their control. Compare that to the Hayward RFA summer, where the max offer for Hayward was obviously going to happen from somewhere. 

I can understand why Kessler is frustrated, but it’s not because Utah is squeezing pennies out of his wallet during restricted free agency. He wants a signature on a big extension and lock in his cash now. Salary cap strategy just requires that Utah pay him next summer, instead of committing the cash too early. If the Jazz mess around with his deal next summer during his restricted free agency, then the Hayward parallels would be on point—and perhaps a harbinger of a Kessler departure down the road, just like Hayward. We’re just not there yet.

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