Twenty-two games into Lauri Markkanen's fourth Jazz season, his All-Star case might be even stronger than when he was selected for the 2023 event. The Finnish forwarded has ascended to another level of scoring volume (27.6 ppg) and efficiency (.613 true shooting) that has historically led to near automatic All-Star appearances.
In the previous 79 seasons of NBA basketball, only two athletes have ever reached 27 and .600 in a season in which they were not named an All-Star. In both of those cases it was because the player in question got injured in early December and didn't return until after All-Star rosters were set. (Devin Booker wasn't back until mid-February in the 2022-23 season, and 1982-83 Adrian Dantley didn't return at all that season.)
Players just don't score at that level who aren't bona fide All-Stars, and in most cases all-league stalwarts. Last year, only three players managed those numbers, and they were the top three in MVP voting.
So is Markkanen a guaranteed All-Star if his numbers hold through next month? Not quite, because he sets up shop in the Western Conference where a disproportionate number of the world's best hoopers and legacy superstars also reside.
Now that we're more than 20 games into the NBA season, it makes more sense to analyze the dozen or so guys who are realistically fighting for maybe three open All-Star spots. Because the reality is that the majority of the 12 Western Conference slots are as good as filled already.
Shoe-ins
These give guys are going to appear on MVP ballots. They're among any reasonable list of the top 10-12 players in the NBA this year, and as long as they play an acceptable number of games, they're in.
- Nikola Jokic
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Luka Doncic
- Victor Wembanyama
- Anthony Edwards
Wembanyama has only played 12 games, but is expected back at some point in December. That means he'll be close to 30 games by the time the coaches vote. That should be enough given his stats and stature.
Then there are two legacy All-Stars who would probably get in regardless, but it helps that they're also having great seasons.
- Steph Curry
- Kevin Durant
Curry was on some (OK, two) MVP ballots last season, and he's still averaging above his career norms on a relevant (if .500ish) team. And KD is averaging "just" 25-5-4, amazing by any reasonable standards but the least since his rookie season. It's a pretty safe bet to assume they'll make their 12th and 16th appearances, respectively.
Which leads us right into a conversation about another legacy superstar.
- LeBron James
Some early lists/looks at the All-Star field have ignored James altogether since he debuted just eight games ago and so far has mostly been playing a complementary role (17-6-8). But it's hard to imagine an All-Star game without LeBron Raymone James.
He might even get in voted in by fans. Only Jokic got more votes than him in last year's fan vote. It just feels like he'll be there, one way or another. And weirdly, that feels fine, despite the career lows in minutes, shots, points, rebounds, usage, etc. He's better than Dirk Nowitzki and Dwyane Wade were when they were named commissioner's picks for pure sentimentality, but the benefit of doing it that way is that he doesn't take a spot from someone else. For now, I'm budgeting one of the 12 spots for him, because I can't imagine he won't be part the festivities.
It also feels like the Thunder will get a second guy in, since they're on pace for an Infinty-and-1 record:
- Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren
They're a ridiculous 24-1. There's no way the league is making SGA represent this historic buzzsaw by himself. JDub is probably the actual second best player at this point but has only played six games. Right now people are talking like Chet is the pick here given Williams' late start; I'd say let's see where their stats are after another month. Holmgren's counting stats don't scream All-Star (19-8-2), but the impact is undeniable. There's just also a chance JDub catches up to him — he's already up to 17-5-6 and is still just working his way back. If he's closer to the 22-5-5 numbers that got him selected last year, maybe he'll get it over Holmgren. Although if you're insisting on OKC getting a second guy to recognize their record, it kind of makes sense to put forward the guy who has participated in that record. (It also wouldn't be crazy if they both made it.)
That's nine players already. There are 12 All-Star spots per conference. That's how brutally tough this is.
All-Star bubble:
There are 11 guys who probably warrant some serious level of discussion. Let's start with Markkanen's case:
Lauri Markkanen. His 28-7-2 counting stats and .613 true shooting damn near put him in the "he HAS to make it" category, except that again — this is the West. Utah probably can't be in the absolute cellar if he's going to make it, but history says team success isn't an ironclad prerequisite when a guy scores at this level.
He's operating more than ever as the center of the offense, with or without the ball. In the West, only SGA, Luka and Ant have more 30-point games than Markkanen (and Jokic has an equal nine). He's assaulting the rim even more often than in his All-Star season (39 dunks already), and at the same time only one player has more catch-and-shoot threes than his 62. That combination is insane. The Jazz's net rating (outside of garbage time) improves by 16.5 points per 100 when he's on the floor.
The problem is, there are just so many players who have very convincing cases:
Alperen Sengun. Sengun is probably in since he's co-carrying one of the West's very best teams with 23-9-7 stats. He's also suddenly a real 3-point threat (39%), and has made one All-Star team already. Teammate KD is essentially guaranteed a spot, so the only thing that could work against him is if coaches don't think Houston needs two. Most advanced stats think Sengun might be more critical to the Rockets' success.
Devin Booker. The 4-time All-Star is averaging 25-4-7 for one of the surprise teams of the season, although they have lost five of eight. He's got a little groin pull he's nursing currently, but that shouldn't affect his candidacy. His career-low 31.5% from outside is the only blemish on a résumé that otherwise looks just like his other All-Star seasons.
Austin Reaves. Remember how we said that guys with 27+ ppg and .600+ true shooting make All-Star teams? That also applies to Reaves, who is doing just that for the 17-6 Lakers. In five games without Doncic, the man averaged 40.0! This would mean three guys for the Lakers if you buy my premise that LeBron is in, but they're currently tied for the fourth best record in the West, so maybe that's not inconceivable. He has only barely let up since LeBron got back: 27-6-5 since the King's return, 28-6-7 overall this season.
Deni Avdija. It's been a breakout year for Avdija: 26-7-6 counting stats and a ton more usage and creation responsibility. He's being talked about like a surefire All-Star, which is surprising given that the Blazers have now stumbled back to where they're even in the GB column with Utah. But he's still a worthy candidate, and probably direct competition for Markkanen, depending on how the next month goes for both. (Shaedon Sharpe deserves mention at 21-5-2, but right now Avdija would make it over him as the Blazers' rep.)
Jamal Murray. Already considered perhaps the most established star in the league without an AS appearance, Murray is averaging a career-best 24-4-7 and is up to 44% from deep. Factor in Denver's success (2nd in the West) and this could finally be the year.
James Harden. The host Clippers would surely be embarrassed to not have a representative amid their 6-19 burp of a season, and Harden is the most likely. He's got 27-5-8 counting stats and his highest efficiency ever since he came off OKC's bench 13 year ago. Again, though... LAC vibes are pretty low.
Kawhi Leonard. The other Clipper candidate is this 6-time All-Star who is off to a 25-5-6 start. Since 2016 he has made the All-Star roster during every season where he has logged at least 1,750 minutes. He missed 10 straight November games, but is back now. The bigger issues for his candidacy is his team's 4-11 record when he plays and of course the fact that he's embroiled in some messiness.
Julius Randle. Randle carried the Wolves during Edwards' absence, even running a bunch of pick-and-roll offense. Edwards' return moved him back down the pecking order, but he's still averaging 23-7-6 on career-high efficiency for a team that's above the play-in. Randle is a 3-time All-Star who will get some consideration.
De'Aaron Fox. The 2023 All-Star's name hasn't come up that much, but it should: 24-4-6 stats, his best shooting year, and has helped the Spurs stay viable without Wembanyama (8-3). He should have plenty of games under his belt by late January, too, as he's played the last 16 without interruption since debuting.
A third Thunder? Whichever of Williams/Holmgren doesn't claim the spot we already set aside above will also have an argument here by virtue or OKC's success. Holmgren doesn't have "no-brainer All-Star" stats yet (19-8-2), but his impact is undeniable. Williams is at 17-5-6 but is trending up as he gets fully integrated.
What about...?
Keyonte George. Oh yeah, the Jazz have another guy who should at least be getting mentioned. George's leap to 22-4-7 is impressive, but he wouldn't likely make it over his own teammate. While his growth has been a huge bright spot in the Jazz's season, it would be hard to come up with a case to put him above any of the guys in the group above, let alone nine of them (the number he'd have to leapfrog to actually make the team).
Other past All-Stars
Then there are some past All-Stars who probably don't have the right stats/situations to make it this year:
Anthony Davis. He's up to 20-10-3 after 10 games. Ironically, the 10-time All-Star might make it if he gets traded to the other conference in time.
Zion Williamson. New Orleans is a mess right now, Zion's 22-6-4 are well below the levels that justified his two All-Star selections, and now he's going to miss close to a month.
Ja Morant/Jaren Jackson Jr. Ja's at 18-4-8 and once again is having a year defined by injuries and drama. JJJ's 17-5-2 just don't read like All-Star numbers.
The Kings' All-Star alumni. Zach LaVine's scoring started out around the level of his first All-Star season with Chicago (27.4 ppg), but he's dipped now to 21-3-2 and is on another team with an overall shaky narrative. Domantas Sabonis was averaging 17-12-4 before getting hurt. DeMar DeRozan's numbers don't quite look like All-Star level (18-3-3) and he's the second or third most important guy on a middling team.
Jimmy Butler. Golden State probably needs to be better than the play-in range to get a second in alongside Steph, especially at Butler's current 20-6-5.
Rudy Gobert. He continues to be a plus-minus stud, but 11-and-10 probably won't cut it, especially since he has two teammates who have been putting up All-Star type numbers.
Draymond Green. He's only made one All-Star team in the last seven seasons, and this year's 8-6-6 stats probably won't change that unless Golden State is just dominating record-wise in January.
Other past All-Stars currently playing in the West: Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet, Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal and Dejounte Murray are hurt; Chris Paul is at home watching Netflix currently. Klay Thompson, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley Jr. and D'Angelo Russell are now in supporting roles. Al Horford, Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan are role playing bigs in their respective twilights. Jrue Holiday's not quite producing All-Star numbers (17-5-8) and has two teammates with better stats.
Bottom line: does Markkanen make it?
Sengun, Booker, Reaves, Avdija and Murray are the stiffest competition. Ultimately, leaving any of Markkanen or them off will feel painful based on today's stats, but we have another six weeks or so before coaches have to decide. This might ultimately be decided by who flinches (Injuries, slumps, etc.) or who surges. Harden is deserving if you lessen the focus on team success — which you kind of have to do in order to argue for Markkanen or Avdija. (Harden would make it over Kawhi for basketball and optics reasons, if LAC were granted a host courtesy spot.) Randle, Fox and a third Thunder would be deserving in a vacuum, but in this insane conference I think they're behind those other half dozen dudes.
It's going to be tight.
We'll likely need all of December and January to sort this out, and even then there will be some excruciatingly tough decisions in the end.
International considerations
Because of the format changes for the 2026 game, there must be at least eight international All-Stars selected among both conferences' combined 24. If the voting doesn't naturally produce eight such players, then the commissioner will name extras up to eight. So if Markkanen is right on the cusp, that's another way he could get in.
Thing is, it's just as likely to go the other way, with Adam Silver instead having to name additional U.S.-born players to get up to 16.
Western Conference shoe-ins Jokic, SGA, Doncic and Wemby will all count toward the "world" quota, as will Giannis Antetokounmpo in the East. If Markkanen doesn't make it in the first place, it will likely be because one or more of Sengun (Turkey), Murray (Canada) and Avdija (Israel) got in ahead of him. Franz Wagner (Germany) was on his way to a selection before a high ankle sprain, so we'll see how long that keeps him sidelined. Karl-Anthony Towns is another possibility in the East, who's American born but has played for the Dominican Republic in international competition.
So don't plan on this wrinkle necessarily helping Markkanen.
