Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.
It's been exactly a month since we first dared to glance at the Western Conference All-Star landscape, and we're now just a fortnight or so away from when coaches will finalize the roster.
The Jazz have two All-Star hopefuls, but at 13-25 it would be almost unheard of for them to get both in. Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George are two of at least a dozen guys who will get consideration for the five spots left behind the Western Conference's surefire All-Stars.
If Markkanen and/or Kawhi Leonard miss out, they could become the first players in history to complete a qualifying season with 28+ points and .600 true shooting and not make the All-Star team. Nobody in this group has had more games with 30+ than Markkanen, and his on/off differential is just silly. Leonard started a little slow and then missed some time, but has led a 9-2 resurgence by the Clippers. He's averaging 33-8-4 over that span. Both guys would make my (imaginary) ballot.
Them making it complicates things for George and James Harden. Coaches aren't going to give sub-.500 teams two All-Stars, and the pecking order on the Jazz and Clippers is pretty clear. That's especially rough news for Harden, who had to do the heavy lifting during Kawhi's 10-game absence. On the other hand, LAC was 2-8 in those games. Similarly, the Jazz are 0-6 without Markkanen (with George playing in five of those games). George also has the fewest EPM wins of this grouping, despite having a career year and having a strong case for Most Improved Player.
Deni Avdija is having a special season. He's essentially running point for the Blazers, and has the most favorable win math of this group. Actually, the Monday update to EPM wins has him third in the conference, behind only recent MVPs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic. He makes his team a ton better, and he only scores a bucket a game less than Markkanen and Leonard (on similar efficiency). He should be in.
History says that a team with an .825 winning percentage will get two, so I'm budgeting a spot for Chet Holmgren despite stats that look milder than the others here (18-8-2). The impact is undeniable on both ends. Jalen Williams might be OKC's real second best player in the macro sense, but he has played just 21 games and is still finding a rhythm.
This writer has mixed feelings about Alperen Sengun. Like Avdija, he's actually one of team's top creators despite his position, and I love his game. That said, I'm confused at how many national guys are talking about him like an automatic All-Star selection given games played and that his team is exactly as good when he's playing vs. sitting. Lest that sound like Jazz-colored analysis, let's even compare him to Julius Randle. The Wolves' big is having a very similar season statistically and also provides a ton of playmaking, but has played 38% more games and his team is actually better when he's on the floor. Fact is, I don't even have room for Randle on my ballot either, but that contrast alone shows that Sengun's case isn't as open-and-shut as some are making it sound. Should Houston, currently 7th, really be entitled to a second All-Star over Minnesota (4th) or Denver (3rd), or even before Phoenix (6th) gets a single guy on?
If we're down to one spot between Sengun, Randle, Devin Booker and Jamal Murray, I go Murray. He's having a career year across the board, and has become even more important since Jokic got hurt. This is the hardest spot for me, but Murray has been the reigning "guy we absolutely know is a superstar even though he hasn't been an All-Star" for several seasons. You could award two of these four if you decide OKC's strength is its depth and they don't need two All-Stars (at which point I'd go Sengun or Booker). But I don't think that's how the coaches will vote. Someone else from this group also might get in if one of the world/USA squads needs more guys.
Austin Reaves still has at least a couple weeks left before he's back, and 23 games just isn't enough. De'Aaron Fox (21-4-6 on the #2 team) should get some love, but to put him on the team you'd have to tell me which SEVEN guys no that graphic he's surpassed.
My five, then, are: Leonard, Markkanen, Avdija, Holmgren and Murray. They'd join SGA, Jokic, Luka Doncic, Victor Wembanyama, Anthony Edwards, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant. LeBron James likely gets invited in some capacity, but with just 19 games played he might make more sense as an emeritus invitee by the commissioner rather than taking a spot away from one of those 12.
To be clear, that doesn't mean Markkanen will make it when the actual coaches vote. Based on the way the chatter sounds at this moment, I'd actually say it's probably more likely that he's just on the outside than that he gets in. But he's absolutely deserving, and it would be silly for a 28-ppg scorer with a +18 on/off differential to get left home.
They could expand the Western Conference to 15 All-Stars, and it would still require some brutal cuts to get there. And guys still have a couple of weeks to pad their résumés.
"I tell the guys, 'you don't know how good you have it...' These guys, a lot of them only know what they know, just being in one organization. Being elsewhere, what I'm trying to tell them is like: 'You have a (team) owner that knows your name. Every player. And then you have a GM (Justin Zanik), a president (Austin Ainge), you have Danny Ainge that's like we believe in you, we want you to grow. You're allowed to f--- up, you're allowed to have mistakes. And we're going to have grace in allowing you to take a step forward and be better... you're one of our guys.' You don't get that everywhere."
Kevin Love, on his experience with the Jazz organization
For the second straight week, we're devoting this space to a veteran lovefest. This time is was Love who, on a visit with the Old Man and the Three podcast, spoke highly of the supportive culture in Utah.
He went on to talk about his relationship with Will Hardy, and how the coach's transparency about his role helped Love decide he could have a fulfilling experience by joining this young team.
"That was something that really drove me to go (to Utah). Because I think that everybody in this league wants to add value and wants to be a part of something bigger than themselves," said Love. "There was an immediate trust factor with Will... That connection has helped us grow into a pretty great relationship now." Love says he aims to be an extension of the coaching staff, and help the message get through about what the coaches want from their young roster.
64%
Only 25 of the Blazers' 93 field goal attempts on Monday were "contested" per tracking data (27%, compared to 41% of the Jazz's shots). But what made that game even more remarkable was that Portland shot better on those contested tries than they did on the other 68 — 64% compared to 49%.
70
Utah's 70 paint points in OKC were a season-high, which is how they were able to take the mighty Thunder to extra basketball. And since neither team was great from outside either, this one mostly came down to OKC resting on a sizeable free-throw differential (42-21).
+13.8
Thursday marked the Jazz's 10th clutch win of the season. Their clutch net rating is now +13.8, sixth best in the league, thanks in large part to the fact that their league-worst 122.0 DRtg improves to 100.0 in the clutch. Markkanen averages 30.7 points per 36 minutes of clutch play, with shooting splits of 53-46-81. George averages 30.6, thanks largely to his elite foul-drawing late in close games.
-31
Seven times this season, a team has trailed by 25 or more after the opening period, and five of those times it was the Utah Jazz. That includes Saturday's 31-point deficit to Charlotte after 12 minutes, the biggest gap of the NBA season at that point in a game. Utah wound up losing by 55, their biggest home loss in franchise history.
.606
Cody Williams has had a nice resurgence: .606 true shooting since Christmas. On the other end, Kyle FIlipowski is slumping: .402 over the same span.
How do you take an elite halfcourt defensive team to overtime in their building? By refusing to play the game on their terms.
OKC is historically good defensively, and in particular frustrates teams in the halfcourt because of their planning and execution on pick-and-roll schemes. They have the personnel to guard P&R offense with a bit more variation in their helping schemes, which is really important because nearly every offense in the league these days is built primarily around that type of high screening action.
The Jazz were able to avoid playing into OKC's strength by mixing in some offense that didn't start with a screen-roll in the middle of the floor that OKC's super smart defenders could respond to with muscle memory.
On the first one, Isaiah Collier beats his man from a standstill, and since there was no ball screen to start his attack, OKC has to guard this one out of scheme, or what I call in "oh shit" mode. Branden Carlsen has no choice but to slide over and help from one pass away, which he'll do because numbers say you can leave Williams sometimes. But not this time.
The second clip there shows Collier beating the defense without a screen by passing. He leads Walt Clayton Jr. to the ball with a heady pass, so again, the Thunder have to figure out how to guard without the structure of their P&R scheme. Two guys panic and shift over to him, meaning Clayton has the option to dish to Taylor Hendricks, lob to Filipowski, or float a skip pass to the unguarded Brice Sensabaugh. None are bad choices, but Hendricks rewards the faith.
Finally, Markkanen beats a guy without a screen and three guys swarm him as a result, with the other two Thunder defenders coming all the way the imaginary "help line" in the middle of the paint. That leaves the floor totally unbalanced, so Utah just toys with them until Sensabaugh finally attacks the closeout for a poster dunk.
The other way to beat a team's pressure against the P&R offense is to backcut off said pressure. Utah did that, too.
Markkanen is so smart at reading defenders off the ball, and both times George delivers him the perfect pass.
Jazz 116, Mavs 114: Lauri Markkanen. At 33-7-4, this could only really be Markkanen, even though George's delicious move late sealed it. For his part, Key had an efficient 19 to go with seven assists and three steals, but Markkanen scored on a mix of dunks, middies and hustle points. Had he shot a little better from outside, he could have flirted with 40. Kevin Love had a double-double and a game-high +13, and Sensabaugh did a little of everything (14-5-3) including some clutch buckets.
Strong in defeat:
- Jazz 117, Blazers 137: Jusuf Nurkic. The former Blazer had 21, 12 and 5, shooting 9-for-12 from the floor. His ninth double-double of the year was enough to secure this spot, especially since other top scorers Markkanen (22-4-4) and George (15-4-4) both had turnover issues and lopsided plus-minus marks. You could go Collier who scored 10 and dished 9, and who was just -1 in 30 minutes of a 20-point loss, but a lot of that was garbage time stuff.
- Jazz 125, Thunder 129 (OT): Lauri Markkanen. If Nurkic (15 & 15 with three steals) hadn't fouled out, the Jazz might have won that game. That said, the whole game really revolved around OKC trying to scheme Markkanen out of the game and him saying, "Nah." He had an efficient 29 and 13, including a go-ahead bucket with 3.2 seconds left in the fourth. Nurk would be a fine choice too, at +13 for the game, and George had 25, 7 and 11, albeit less efficiently than LM's 29 and with another bunch of turnovers. Walt Clayton Jr. deserves love too: 15-6-4, earned the close.
- Jazz 95, Hornets 150: Brice Sensabaugh. Collier's attacking and dishing did wake the Jazz up a little early, but the totaliy of Sensabaugh's night probably outweighed Zay's contributions. The nine assists would be the main reason to go with Collier here, but when I saw that five of those nine came in a totally inconsequential fourth quarter, that tilted me back over to Sensabaugh's 26-point night on 16 shots. Clayton had a late explosion, too.
The Jazz set off on a 5-game trip, including four games that will take place in the next seven nights.
Monday 1/12 at Cavaliers: The Cavs are a pedestrian 7-7 over the past month and are currently in the play-in range despite a career year from Jazz alumnus Donovan Mitchell. Spida is averaging 29.8 points on career high efficiency, but injuries and stalled growth from some of their youngsters have held the Cavs back. They've only had 11 games where Mitchell has appeared together with Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Wednesday 1/14 at Bulls: The Bulls will have to travel all the way from Houston to face the Jazz on the second night of a back-to-back, but they'll be home where they're 11-9. Leading scorers Josh Giddey (19.2 ppg, 8 games missed) and Coby White (18.6, 20 games missed) have both lost time, which is why seven Bulls have been able to average double figures. They started the season 5-0, but are now looking up at .500 and appeared destined for a fourth straight appearance in the play-in.
Thursday 1/15 @ Mavs: The two Jazz-Mavs bouts in SLC were decided by a combined two regulation points. Now the season series shifts to Dallas, where the Mavs are 6-1 since the start of December. However, Anthony Davis' hand injury — which he suffered defending a Markkanen drive— complicates things for the Mavs. AD leads them in points, rebounds and wins above replacement. They're also without Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum for the year, and Kyrie Irving has no return timetable set.
Saturday 1/17 @ Mavs: The Jazz will be done facing the Mavs after this weekend series. Three Mavs are also currently listed as day-to-day, including PJ Washington who had 25 and 14 in the mid-December contest but wasn't available for the rematch, and Moussa Cisse, a two-way center. Their involvement could be huge since the only other available big men are Daniel Gafford and the seldom-used Dwight Powell. Cooper Flagg had the best night of his young career against the Jazz (42) and then followed that up with a near triple double in the sequel (26-10-8).
Let's end with a fun little visualization on the season so far.
