This fine preseason column where we use gambling odds as a tool to previous various aspects of the Jazz's season took a little hiatus the past few years. There was simply no Utah Jazz player, team, or coach awards or predictions even remotely worth the casinos’ time (or your money). Sure, every team gets an over/under and sometimes it was worth considering an Ace Bailey Rookie of the Year bet, but not really anything to get super excited about.
We have a lot more to chew on this year, for Utah’s first intentionally competitive season in 5 years!
As always, I espouse trudging to a sportsbook in person and placing your bets in person with the friendly(ish) person at the counter who will give you a drink ticket or three for your trouble. The proliferation of online gambling terrifies me and I generally avoid it. You shouldn’t be losing lots of money on this stuff! It should be a fun boost to your sports fandom!
With that said, let our optimism run wild:
Utah Jazz Over/Under Wins: 37.5 (OVER)
This line opened at 35.5 which was just preposterously low. If this team finishes below .500, it will be a collective failure of a season.
We have covered, in excruciating detail, the preposterous, historic ($$$) lengths the Jazz had to go through to lose games last year. Will Hardy was out there being forced to play a round of golf with a 4 iron and one of those Little Tikes plastic club sets. Keyonte George took a demonstrative leap last year and was summarily forced to stop playing. Players opted for elective surgery at a rate that felt right at home in Utah.
Regardless of the center situation (and Jusuf Nurkic and Jaxson Hayes are a totally fine, below-average combo for the season, to say nothing of the potential of a midseason trade), Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. are demonstratively winning players. You can generally trust Hardy to find the offensive tweaks necessary to exploit flawed regular season opponents. And the Jazz go surprisingly deep, as competent players like Josh Green and Kyle Filipowski scale down to much smaller roles who can contribute to wins in February when injuries pile up.
I can see a lot of ways that this team disappoints me and ends up as a 38-40 win team. Below 37 requires a multi-organ failure and that’s way harder to predict. And I don’t think a non-tanking NBA is going to cost Utah 6-8 wins; maybe more like 2-4. There are also credible stories to the Jazz surprising and going for 44-48 wins, but not really how Utah could end up with 30. The talent level is just too high.
My specific prediction: Utah wins 43 games, gets the 8 seed, wins their 7/8 play-in game, and steals 2 wins against the Spurs in the 7/2 matchup. (Utah gets blown out in the other 4 games).
Utah Jazz to Make the Playoffs: +140; Utah Jazz to Make the Play-In Tournament: +110
These are really likely outcomes, but you’re not getting good enough odds to tie up your money for 7 months. And stupider things can happen if the Jazz make the Play-In and lose a game or two to miss the big dance. A sneaky way to lose the latter bet is if the Jazz actually just finish as a top-6 seed and skip the Play-In Tournament outright.
Utah Jazz to Win Western Conference: +10000
If you like making stupid longshot bets as a fan to cheer along with, I like this better than +20000 to win the NBA Finals. I think Utah has too much youth and small holes that better teams will drive a stake through in a playoff series for this to be anything other than a donation to the casinos, even though they put Utah alongside much worse teams for championship odds (like New Orleans, who is awful).
Winning the West requires injury flameouts from both OKC and the Spurs (which really means just Victor Wembanyama, in the Spurs case) and....that’s not the craziest story in the world? But whoever makes the Finals from the East will simply be too formidable. This half of the bracket is more fun for stupid money.
Coach of the Year, Will Hardy +1100
This feels like a degree too high for me to want to put money on. I totally see a plausible path where Utah is a top-4 seed and they have some accompanying top-5 offense that is unique and impossible to stop. But there are too many paths for this NOT to happen — and for other teams/coaches to have a better season/story — that +1100 feels too rich. I might rethink this if a slow start pushes the odds to +2500 or something, because the season schedule is generally favorable.
Rookie of the Year, Darryn Peterson +350
Another one that feels a touch too high. One of the top-4 guys will very likely win the award, but it feels early on like AJ Dybantsa, Cam Boozer, and Caleb Wilson will all have slightly more prevalent roles on their team to stake a better claim to the award.
Of course, Peterson will be vital to the Jazz’s success, and Utah has the inside track to winning the most games of all these teams. So Peterson’s best chance would be to get good counting stats on the only winning team of the bunch.
Darryn Peterson to score 45+ points in a game +1800; Darryn Peterson to record a triple-double +3500
These are sucker bets meant to take your money, but damn if it isn’t fun to see a Jazzman be the subject of stupid sucker bets again. If tanking was still a thing and the Jazz were still fully rebuilding, these would be a lot of fun as possibilities. But these aren’t fun odds. Even Donovan Mitchell, who had as many keys to the offense as he wanted, only had a high of 41 in his rookie season.
Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson Jr. +8000
If Wembanyama (-360) didn’t exist, maaaaan this would be tempting. Keep an eye on Wemby’s health for the 65-game rule.
Assuming there is crack of opportunity if Wembanyama isn’t on track for 65, these are the same odds as former Jazzman Walker Kessler. But as I look at the names ahead like Rudy Gobert (+3000), Chet Holmgren (+1200), or Ausar Thompson (+2500), I am skeptical that Jackson will drive enough defensive impact for a middling Utah defense over those guys. Preseason hasn’t been super encouraging towards Jackson’s counting stats, either (especially fouls).
Trip will cause a huge improvement to the Jazz defense. Probably not a singular effect worth betting on, though.
To Make an All-Defense First Team, Jaren Jackson Jr. +1200
This is a lot more fun and plausible to bet on. You basically have to assume Wembanyama, Holmgren, and Gobert will occupy three of the four spots. Ausar Thompson’s brand is also still really high. So Jackson will have to battle with excellent competition (Dyson Daniels, Derrick White, Evan Mobley, Bam Adebayo, Giannis Antetokounmpo...) for that last spot.
\I can poke holes in every story except for Wemby, and even for him, I cannot emphasize enough in this space that I am not certain he plays 65 games to make sure he’s healthy for the playoffs. This is a good line.
To Make an All-NBA Team, Jaren Jackson Jr. +2200; Lauri Markkanen +3500
Now THESE are the bets you want!!! If these odds were flipped, I’d probably put a dollar on both. As it is, this is a merely okay line for Trip and a SAUCY line for Lauri. Lauri is getting worse odds than Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Trae Young, Derrick White, and OG Anunoby. That is very stupid! All good players, sure, but they’re nowhere near as good as Lauri, nor as likely to put up Markkanen’s counting stats on a good team.
Markkanen is going to put up 26+ PPG on crazy efficiency and very good advanced stats for an above-.500 team. That’s immediate All-NBA contention and only an injury or three from being a shoo-in.
For Jaren, I think it’ll depend more on his defensive impact metrics and on/off stats. And voters love pretty counting stats, and I am not sure he crests 20 points, 6 rebounds, and/or 2 blocks per game. He’ll pretty much need those numbers for All-NBA, so +2200 feels a bit thin on value.
I love the idea of both dudes making All-NBA Third Team. I think it is very much in play if the story of the Jazz involves 47 wins and a top-4 seed. Yes, the Jazz are that good! Stop laughing!!!
Clutch Player of the Year, Lauri Markkanen +10000; Keyonte George +20000; Darryn Peterson +20000; Ace Bailey +25000
Let’s take a look at that Keyonte George number! I have long harped that Markkanen is too dependent a threat to be given the exclusive keys to the bus in crunch time. The team will balance and stretch a defense out in the final minutes so that everyone feels like they are contributing, but this is Keyonte’s primary world. We saw the start of it last year:
Key typically gets way more aggressive in second halves and starts drawing a ton of fouls (which he converts at a ridiculous rate). He also was sixth in clutch time scoring per game, behind only Anthony Edwards, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jamal Murray. Pretty good company!
The Utah offense will be more egalitarian, and we might not even see George crack 20 PPG. But I don’t see his 4th quarter role changing much, if at all. A touch more efficiency and a handful more wins? You’re getting an award finalist at +20000.
To Average 20+ PPG, Jaren Jackson -110
I said above I’m not certain Trip gets over 20 points. He did, comfortably, in his two seasons before last year’s bullshit and bad Grizzlies team. His upside is around 22-23 points, and I think we’ve seen a ton of aggression from him in preseason. This line is perfectly set and I’d throw a dollar at it.
To Average 20+ PPG, Darryn Peterson +190
I just can’t see a plausible path to this happening except in the highest-tier outcomes for DP. Too much viable, efficient offense for Utah to resort to giving Peterson enough shots for 20 PPG. And if I’m looking at “highest-tier outcomes”, you need to be giving me at least +800 to game it out.
To Average 23+ PPG; Keyonte George +170
The reason I’m betting against this is because I think it requires some other multiple organ failure on the Jazz, and I’m not having a good time with that. It means that Peterson can’t take a load, it means Markkanen and/or Jackson have taken a step back from their typical output, and/or Bailey doesn’t take a solid leap.
George could very well do this and be pretty damn efficient at it, and Utah could have a very good offense with this as a primary engine. But the very best version of the 2026-27 Utah Jazz involves a little less gas from Key during the regular season.
Come playoff time, though? Watch out.
To Average 25+ PPG: Keyonte George +1400
This is WAY more interesting for Key! All of the same issues with the Jazz as an organization apply here, but now you’re getting +1400 for your pain instead of +170. With Keyonte’s free throw drawing skills (one of the very, very, very best in the NBA), he has every single baseline skill needed for an even bigger scoring leap.
I still don’t think this team is asking him to come anywhere near this during the regular season. But once the institutional failures start piling up due to injuries or whatever, he’s definitely a viable candidate for 25 a night. Especially with anti-tanking measures that will incentivize Utah to keeping him out there even if the season were to go south like that.
To Average 23+ PPG: Lauri Markkanen -300
I’m telling you guys, nobody believes in Markkanen’s scoring output and this is free damn money. You’re spotting the bookmakers a few bucks at -300, but whatever. This is a lock.
To Average 25+ PPG: Lauri Markkanen +250
Take your locked-in winnings for 23+ PPG and see if you can get a little bonus by betting on Lauri to return to last year’s All-Star form (spoiler alert: he will).
To Average 28+ PPG: Lauri Markkanen +1800
Okay settle down now.
To Average 6+ RPG: Jaren Jackson Jr. +125
Jackson Jr. has done this exactly once in his NBA career. The Jazz desperately need this year to be his second. I think he barely cracks it.
To Average 8+ RPG: Jaren Jackson Jr. +550
No! He’s not doing this! This is a terrible price, too, my god.
To Average 10+ RPG: Jaren Jackson Jr. +2800
Casinos won’t put up a line unless they perceive some market action (otherwise, why list it and risk a loss). Is there some undercurrent that (a) Utah will play a ton of Jackson-at-the-5 and (b) it will suddenly turn Jackson Jr. into a good rebounder?
I’m only asking because while, yes, the bet here would be very dumb, I am wondering why it’s here at all.
To Average 6+ RPG: Lauri Markkanen -140; To Average 8+ RPG: Lauri Markkanen +285
Grouping these together because I just want to note that Utah will desperately need Lauri’s size and skill at the rim all season and may not need to overindex on his shooting skills to pull him away from the paint. Lauri averaged 8.6 and 8.2 in 2022 and 2023, respectively (followed by 5.9 and 6.9). I think he’ll average in the high 7s, which is enough to try to get both bets in safely.
To Average 10+ RPG: Lauri Markkanen +1200
But he’s not doing this!
Assists Per Game
I couldn’t find anywhere giving me odds on Keyonte George at 6+ APG (which is typically the baseline for entry-level bets), but one site did offer a sucker parlay at +1500 for George 6+ APG, Markkanen 8+ RPG, and Jackson Jr. 20+ PPG. This is kinda tasty but I think the riskiest segment is the Lauri rebounds — we are wishcasting way too much that he can help paper over JJJ’s rebounding issues.
To Average 3+ threes per game: Keyonte George +235
Just not Keyonte George’s main game! He’ll put up between 6.5 and 8 three point attempts per game, but I don’t think he’s averaging the 3P FG% to get 3 makes per game. He’s scoring a variety of different ways and won’t be asked to be a distance bomber all the time, especially with the spaced frontcourt he is blessed to play with.
Blocks Per Game
Can’t find futures on this one yet for Jackson, but can he get back over 2 BPG? He hasn’t averaged this many since his DPOY season, when he averaged a whopping 3.0. Can’t he get back to some part of this, especially with his offensive load not as necessary for team success?
A Rivalry Begins
Some places will let you bet on stupid things where all they are trying to do is drive up intrigue and bet quantity. Well, one place lets you bet on who will score more points between AJ Dybantsa (+135) vs. Peterson (-160). Interesting to see Peterson as the favorite here, noting what I mentioned above about Dybantsa likely getting more scoring load responsibilities.
My guess: Dybantsa averages more points and wins more ROTY/1st Team All-Rookie votes than Peterson.
But Peterson has the better, Hall-of-Fame career that brings a title to Utah. Just might take more than a dart throw in his rookie year to make it happen.
