Even as we muddle through the final six days of the NBA’s regular season, the Utah Jazz front office is still putting the finishing touches on the roster, believe it or not. If nothing else, the club’s brain trust has at least one transaction on the to-do list for this week: finally filling out the roster.
Ever since the February 10 trade deadline and subsequent buyout season passed without filling Utah’s 15th roster spot, most observers have figured that the team would convert two-way player Trent Forrest to a regular NBA deal at or near the end of the regular season. It’s a sensible assumption. Forrest has played a regular role for coach Quin Snyder, but if he remains on a two-way contract, he will be unable to play during the postseason. While playoff rotations usually shrink and Forrest may not be called upon on a nightly basis during the league’s second season, it’s probably still prudent to keep a guy around if he has effectively been your third rotation point guard.
Over the past few weeks, however, the situation has changed, which might cause the Jazz to revise the plan.
Hassan Whiteside missed four games due to what was initially identified as a right foot sprain. As a contingency plan, the team temporarily used the open 15th roster spot to sign veteran Greg Monroe to a 10-day contract to play backup center until Whiteside was able to play. “Moose” has appeared in two games so far[ref]I wish I could share a cool story about how Monroe earned the Moose moniker, but there isn't one. A high school classmate wrote it on a chalkboard, and it followed him.[/ref].
Imaging on Whiteside’s foot later revealed that the injury was actually a minor bone spur fracture, which sounds more serious due to the term fracture, but is ironically less concerning. Whiteside was cleared to play as long as he could manage the pain, and indeed, he played in the very next game, a Saturday night loss to the Warriors in San Francisco. According to Salt Lake Tribune beat writer Eric Walden, Whiteside also participated in practice as well as drills afterward, so he seems to be feeling well.
During Whiteside's absence, Forrest unfortunately suffered a concussion after getting hit by a stray Rudy Gobert arm, and has missed the last two games. He has now been upgraded to a questionable status on the team’s injury report, so he seems likely to clear the NBA’s concussion protocols by the final day of the season, or if not, by the time the playoffs start. This is his second concussion within one year, so it’s impossible to know for certain.
Over the next few days, the team will have to decide how to respond to the recent injury news, then make the appropriate moves between Thursday and Sunday, in order to finalize the roster for the postseason.
There are three primary options:
Option 1: Monroe departs, Forrest converted to standard contract
This is likely the option the front office anticipated when Monroe was signed, before the exact nature of Whiteside’s foot injury was known. Utah probably planned to use Monroe from March 28 through April 6 (the duration of the 10-day), then let him go, as long as Whiteside was healthy and ready to return.
To execute this sequence of deals, the Jazz would simply allow Monroe’s deal to expire (there is no waiver process for ten-day contracts), then help him clean out his locker either Wednesday night after playing the Thunder or Thursday morning before he catches a flight out of town.
Once the roster spot is vacated, the team could convert Forrest's contract any time between Thursday and Sunday. While Forrest’s current two-way salary does not count against the team’s luxury tax calculation, his post-conversion NBA salary will. Forrest will earn $8,558 per day[ref]It’s unknown exactly how much Forrest is making at this point on his two-way deal. Once he had been active for 50 games, he started receiving a higher level of pay than his original two-way rate of pay, but I’ve never seen the exact enhanced rate of pay published.[/ref] starting the day he is converted and ending Sunday[ref]Players aren't paid a salary during the playoffs.[/ref]. In addition, the Jazz will pay $23,982 in luxury tax for each day. As a result, it’s in the team’s best interest to convert Forrest as late as possible, on Sunday.
It should also be noted that Forrest’s deal could be converted to a multiyear deal, paying him for the final one to four days of the current season, but also covering next season at a salary in the $1.8 million range. Forrest might then return to the club next season, or he and any portion of his 2022-23 salary that is guaranteed could be used in a trade in during the offseason.
Letting Monroe walk is placing a lot of faith in Whiteside’s ability to continue to play through some level of pain, so expect the medical staff to be monitoring his injury very closely in the back-to-back games Tuesday and Wednesday night[ref]In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Whiteside held out of Wednesday’s game as a precaution, just because Monroe will still be on the roster at that point[/ref]. If Monroe is gone and Whiteside decides on any given day that the discomfort is just too much, Snyder’s has fewer backup center options given the season-ending injury to Udoka Azubuike. By way of review, here’s how the team has played with a non-center like Rudy Gay, Eric Paschall, or Juancho Hernangómez manning that spot, per Cleaning the Glass:
Monroe wasn’t a net positive in his first two appearances, but he’s been much better than the combined group of lineups playing without a traditional center.
Option 2: Retain Monroe, keep Forrest on his two-way contract
Alternatively, now that the front office has better information on Whiteside, they may choose to mitigate that risk by keeping Monroe around, signing him to another deal after his current ten-day contract expires.
The team could either sign Monroe to a second 10-day contract (actually a three or four-day contract, depending on when it was signed), or simply sign him to a contract for the rest of the season. Doing the latter would cost exactly the same amount as the ten-day option, or $9,593 per day in net salary and another $23,982 per day in luxury tax. By signing a deal for the rest of the season, the Jazz would have non-Bird free agent rights on Monroe. This would enable the team to pay 120% of the minimum salary to bring him back in the offseason, including using that salary as a sign and trade to add salary in a larger deal. It’s probably unlikely that either one happens, but it doesn’t hurt to leave the door open just in case.
While keeping Monroe would certainly mitigate the lack of big men if Whiteside or Gobert were to miss any time, it would create a similar problem in the backcourt. Forrest would remain on his two-way contract, unable to dress for postseason contests, so any injury to Mike Conley or Donovan Mitchell could leave the Jazz wishing they had another point guard[ref]The front office could reason that Jordan Clarkson or Jared Butler could manage any emergency minutes at the point, but I’m pretty certain Snyder would prefer Forrest as he has most of the season.[/ref].
Forrest’s offseason contract status would change little. On either the two-way deal or an expiring NBA contract (i.e. not in the multiyear contract scenario mentioned previously), the Jazz will have the ability to make a Qualifying Offer, which would make Forrest a Restricted Free Agent in the offseason, guaranteeing the Jazz some level of control in the future.
Option 3: Retain Monroe AND convert Forrest -- by clearing another roster spot
What if the front office is uncomfortable entering the postseason with Whiteside in a day-to-day situation, but is simultaneously nervous about losing Forrest’s potential minutes in relief of Conley and Mitchell? There is an option to keep them both, but the Jazz would need to clear a roster spot by some other means.
Besides Monroe, there are four other players on the roster who will be or could be free agents this summer:
Hassan Whiteside – The Jazz wouldn’t cut a healthy Whiteside to make room for both Monroe and Forrest. But what if Whiteside’s injury worsened during the final week of regular season play? This is the only way I could see the Jazz waiving Whiteside – if they felt like they had no choice. Unless he’s incapable, he’s a better option than Monroe.
Eric Paschall and Danuel House Jr. – Both players have been part of the rotation at times during the year, so it’s unlikely that the team would cut either one to deepen the bench at the center and point guard positions. House has been a good find for the team defensively, and while Paschall doesn't currently figure in the rotation, he can still defend in some situations in a pinch and is close friends with Mitchell. The Jazz will also have the option of making Paschall a restricted free agent.
Juancho Hernangómez – To me, Hernangómez is the least likely of these four to be waived. He has surprised me by breaking into the rotation over the last ten games, but his contract has also has more value to the team beyond this season. The Jazz could choose to bring him back next season by guaranteeing his $7.4M salary, but perhaps more importantly, his contract could be useful as a trade piece.
There’s one more dark horse candidate for clearing a roster spot, although he’s not a pending free agent:
Udoka Azubuike – If Dennis Lindsey were still running the show, it would be difficult to imagine the team moving on from Dok, but he’s not. Azubuike, who suffered yet another ankle injury late in the Salt Lake Stars’ season, will be unable to play for the rest of the season. The catch here is that he has $2.2 million in guaranteed money due to him next season, and the Jazz haven’t historically cut players with money left on their deals. That said, they’ve never paid $19 million in luxury tax either, so times may be changing under Ryan Smith. How many Dok fans are left in the organization?
When will we know?
Watch for news about Greg Monroe late Wednesday or early Thursday. If he isn't sticking around, it’s great news for Trent Forrest, who still may have to wait until Sunday to finally officially be on an NBA contract.
If Monroe signs a new contract on Thursday morning[ref]There’s also a chance they wait until Friday, since there’s no game Thursday. It’s the NBA’s version of small change, but one day saves $33,575.[/ref], get ready for some drama. Someone else will be getting disappointing news.
