(AP Photo/Jim Urquhart)

San Antonio Spurs

106

Final Recap | Box Score

102

Utah Jazz

	Josh Howard, SF 29 MIN | 4-8 FG | 4-4 FT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 12 PTS | 0 I was admittedly very apprehensive to see Josh Howard in the starting lineup again, but he responded with one of the best games he’s played since his injury. His handle continues to be a source of hilarity, but his steal at the end of the fourth quarter gave the Jazz one last gasp.
	Paul Millsap, PF 36 MIN | 6-17 FG | 4-6 FT | 11 REB | 0 AST | 16 PTS | +1 This was the tale of two halves for Paul. In the first half, we wondered where Utah’s fearless leader had gone. He wasn’t just missing shots; he was playing out of control. Millsap’s charm is that he plays like he has been there, and that is definitely not what he was doing in the first half. In the second half, he seemed to find himself again by hitting the boards hard and getting to the free throw line again. He showed good resilience, but still wasn’t the dominant Millsap we were used to watching a couple of weeks ago.
	Al Jefferson, C 38 MIN | 10-19 FG | 0-1 FT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 20 PTS | -1 It’s really too bad that when I think of this game from Al, I’ll probably remember that brick of a jump shot he took with a chance to tie the game with a minute left. That said, he played a good game. His recent surge of steals per game is very encouraging, though what would really help out the Jazz is if he could start getting to the free throw line more.
	Devin Harris, PG 30 MIN | 6-8 FG | 1-1 FT | 1 REB | 4 AST | 15 PTS | +6 Devin Harris’s play inspired all sorts of adjectives that I wouldn’t have believed a few weeks ago. He made some mistakes, but the guy was playing hard. He had confidence and he was pushing the ball up the floor with purpose. When he came off that high screen and hit a jumper with two minutes left, I wasn’t even surprised. I can’t believe these words are coming out of my mouth, but, but… I think I believe in Devin Harris again.
	Gordon Hayward, SG 28 MIN | 3-7 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 3 AST | 8 PTS | -5 Two fouls in the first three minutes doomed Gordon to one of those 8 point games and we all knew it as soon as it happened. When he gets in foul trouble early, all bets are off.
	Earl Watson, PG 18 MIN | 0-3 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 3 AST | 2 PTS | -11 Jazz Nation’s hero of January is now shooting 11 for 43 from the field in February. There is no way that his ankle is 100%. Hopefully, the All Star break will give him a chance to rest it and get his shot back. He played better than 3 assists would indicate tonight, however, as the stat was victimized by some missed dunks and layups.
	C.J. Miles, SF 23 MIN | 5-10 FG | 2-2 FT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 13 PTS | +1 C.J. Miles put up a nice line tonight, but he put his ceiling at a B- in the second quarter. The Jazz were on an 8-2 run to go up 40-32 with about nine minutes left and the crowd was all the way in. It looked like the Jazz had a chance to start building a cushion until Miles cranked consecutive terrible three-pointers that took the crowd out of the game and got the Spurs back in it.
	Derrick Favors, FC 12 MIN | 1-3 FG | 3-4 FT | 0 REB | 1 AST | 5 PTS | -5 It’s hard to understand how someone as long and athletic as Favors could be on the floor an entire cumulative quarter without getting a rebound. 1-3 shooting nights will happen for a backup power forward, but look at his rebound regression each month: 8.5 in December, 5.4 in January, and 3.7 in February. Part of that is because he plays alongside Enes Kanter, who turns into a crazy, wild animal whenever the ball hits the rim, but part of that has to fall on him as well.
	Alec Burks, G 17 MIN | 3-6 FG | 1-1 FT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 7 PTS | -4 In a 15 second span in the second quarter, Burks crashed the offensive glass and rebounded a missed jumper by Kanter, missed the putback, stayed with it, and converted the layup. Then, as soon as Daniel Green crossed midcourt, Burks ruthlessly picked his pocket clean and ran the ball back for a vicious dunk. It was an incredible combination of athleticism, basketball IQ, and hustle. He gives us peeks into the long-term potential of the Jazz in a more stunning way than anyone else.
	Enes Kanter, F 10 MIN | 2-3 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 0 AST | 4 PTS | -2 Strangely enough, a 19-year-old is turning into one of the most consistent players on the Jazz. In very limited action, Kanter has put up at least 4 points and 4 rebounds a game for 8 games in a row despite only getting between 10-20 minutes a game. Plus, he played Duncan as tight as you could expect.

Two Things We Saw

1. Different verse, same tune. The Jazz kept pace with a more experienced Western Conference powerhouse until a lack of big plays down the stretch put the game just an inch out of reach. At this point in the season, we could all see it happening before it was realized.
2. The Jazz fall below .500 for the first time since January 2nd, with 7 of the next 9 still coming on the road. By the time that 5-game road trip is over, we’ll have a much clearer idea of what the story of the season will be.

At some point over the past few years, point-differential started mattering. [Editor's note: On a very basic level, i.e. deciding who won the game, point differential has always mattered. But we get what Jackson is saying. Also, here's an advanced stats primer and a reference guide for all the advanced stat formulas, if you like those kinds of things.]

Coinciding with John Hollinger’s rise in public perception at ESPN, regular fans and statisticians alike now love to reference point-differential as a means for predicting anything in the NBA. You can find arguments that margin of victory is a better indicator of a team’s anticipated playoff success than win-loss record, that point-differential is the most central factor of a team’s future record, and even that the statistic is the best predictor of the eventual NBA champion.

As a fan of the 2011-2012 Utah Jazz, this is a decidedly bad thing. The Jazz are currently 20th in the league in point differential, scoring 95.6 points per game and giving up 97.1, for a difference of -1.5 points per game. [Editor's note: Mercifully, the Jazz are nowhere near the abysmal performance of the Charlotte Bobcats, who are outscored by 14 points per game, on average.]

One glance at the NBA standings will show you that point-differential is something the Jazz would rather not talk about (though they would talk about it a hundred times before mentioning Monday’s shameful, awful, absurd loss to the short-handed, disowned, and hopeless New Orleans Hornets… not that I’m still bitter about it.) NBA statisticians have seen that number in the red for the majority of the season and have accordingly been prophesying the downfall of this season’s Jazz team for weeks now.

At this point, with the Jazz only 2-7 in February, I begrudgingly admit that the numbers so far show them to be validated.

Despite having an average strength of schedule, a 14-14 record, and boasting wins over six of the top ten other teams in the Western Conference, that little -1.5 in the red results in ESPN predicting that the Jazz only have a 15.6 percent chance of sneaking into the playoffs this year.

Thankfully, this isn’t college football, where nothing more substantial than style points [and probably shady back-room deals] provide the final say on whether a team is worthy of advancement or not. Still, it is ridiculous to say that the Jazz are doomed because they have averaged scoring a half point less than their opponents. Mind you, that is cumulatively 11 fewer points scored than their opponents. When you remove the first two games of this season—in which the Jazz lost by a cumulative 42 points–the Jazz are suddenly 31 points above their opponents, rocking a +1.24 margin of victory across the past 25 games (well, up until the Oklahoma City game on Tuesday).

From a statistical prognostication standpoint, the Jazz dug themselves a huge hole in those first two games of the season. If they had lost both of those games by just a point each instead, would they really be that different of a team at this point? Would they really be that much more likely to make the playoffs?

Maybe I’m just playing the apologist because the advanced basketball statistical stars are currently lined up against the Jazz. I’d like to think that if they don’t make the playoffs this year it isn’t because they got blown out in some early, fairly insignificant games. I want it to be because of basketball reasons, like they couldn’t crack a zone defense when they needed to or because they weren’t able to keep the opponent out of the paint in the fourth quarter. At the same time, if this season turns into a wild success, I don’t want it to be a victory for the predictive power of point-differentials–I want it to be because Alec Burks developed into an efficient, confident scorer from the bench, Gordon Hayward learned to get all of his shots within the flow of the offense, and because Earl Watson was always willing to splurge for a technical foul when he thought the team’s fire was getting a little low.

I’m not entirely sure what legitimate case there is to made against point-differential as an integral NBA stat; for all I know, the law of large numbers could be in play here and it could have a really strong correlation with team success. All I’m certain of is that this isn’t a team we can count out yet, despite the last couple of disastrous losses. I haven’t seen the Jazz put up many style points this season, but I have seen them play with a lot of heart.

It’s a crazy look at the rarely seen inner world of Jazz pre-game preparation from that era. Bobby Hansen comes off like a clown, and his performance kind of makes sense of the Bart Kofoed incident. Thurl Bailey, John Stockton, Karl Malone, Mark Eaton, and even the late Larry Miller make appearances.

You can watch the entire game starting here:

Copyright 2012 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)

MVP (Most Valuable Player):
Gordon Hayward had a breakout game, going for 23 points on 8-12 shooting to go along with 5 assists in 35 minutes. He also continued his trend of picking up the toughest defensive assignment, doing a great job on Rudy Gay for most of the night.

Defining Moment:
After struggling with slow starts, the Jazz first team finally got out to a strong start with plenty of energy from the starters. It was encouraging to see a little extra step, especially considering it was the first night of their first back-to-back-to-back on the road. The halftime lead was the first for the Jazz this season on the road.

X factor:
After visiting the National Civil Rights Museum the day before, the Jazz played with new purpose and energy.

That was not easy on the eyes.
The Memphis Tams went defunct for reasons that probably included poor jersey design. The throwback jerseys and Tam O’Shanter hats in the crowd made for a fun atmosphere but haven’t been good luck for the Grizz. (See the picture at the bottom of this post for more Tam O’Shanter goodness. I also love the cardigans that teams are wearing on retro nights.)

Utah Jazz

98

Final Recap | Box Score

88

Memphis Grizzlies

	Gordon Hayward, SG 35 MIN | 8-12 FG | 5-5 FT | 1 REB | 5 AST | 23 PTS | +9 Hayward took a nasty fall after a fast break dunk but somehow shook it off played his best overall game of the season. He’s at his best when he isn’t thinking and just plays. When he puts it all together it’s easy to start seeing glimpses of his muse Manu Ginobili. On this night Hayward was truly The Butler, too, setting up his teammates with 5 assists.
	Paul Millsap, PF 35 MIN | 7-11 FG | 2-3 FT | 8 REB | 4 AST | 16 PTS | +12 Another quietly brilliant game from Millsap.
	Al Jefferson, C 34 MIN | 10-17 FG | 1-1 FT | 15 REB | 4 AST | 21 PTS | +8 A season high in rebounds, some excellent passing, and getting buckets in signature fashion all made for a great night from Jefferson.
	Raja Bell, SG 26 MIN | 4-9 FG | 0-1 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 10 PTS | +6 Bell seemed to hit shots at pivotal moments
	Devin Harris, PG 28 MIN | 4-7 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 3 AST | 9 PTS | +5 Brought nice energy to start the game but faded in the second half. Still, I liked the effort enough in the beginning I’m giving out an A+, just because I enjoyed the win that much.
	Derrick Favors, FC 16 MIN | 3-6 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 6 PTS | +1 It was a rough night for Favors. Other than a nice connection with Al Jefferson for a dunk and a strong finish on a baseline move, there were too many moments where Favors looked completely lost on the low block. He has a lot of potential, but before people get carried away with All-Star talk, he needs to have a few games where he’s al least the best Jazz player on the floor. This wasn’t one.
	Enes Kanter, F 12 MIN | 2-5 FG | 0-1 FT | 5 REB | 0 AST | 4 PTS | -1 At this point in his young career, Kanter is a rebounding specialist. As soon as he learns to beast around the rim and finish with any kind of authority, his game will improve dramatically. There were too many moments when his soft attempts at lay-ups were either blocked, contested, or simply missed. Dunk that ball, young man!
	Earl Watson, PG 20 MIN | 0-3 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 5 AST | 0 PTS | +5 I’m giving Watson the benefit of the doubt because he’s still playing through injuries and probably shouldn’t even be dressing to play yet.
	C.J. Miles, SF 15 MIN | 3-6 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 6 PTS | +4 This game was a microcosm of CJ’s career. Just when you think he’s washed up, he surprises with a solid fourth quarter performance.
	Josh Howard, SF 15 MIN | 1-6 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 0 AST | 2 PTS | 0 The disturbing descent into #LOLHoward territory isn’t a trend any of us want to see continue.
	Alec Burks, G 5 MIN | 0-1 FG | 1-2 FT | 1 REB | 0 AST | 1 PTS | +1 Finally, after four consecutive DNPs, Burks made a quick guest appearance. Understandably, he looked rusty. Here’s hoping Coach Corbin can find ways for Burks and Jeremy Evans to get into the games, if even for a brief stint.

Copyright 2012 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)

Copyright 2012 NBAE (Photo by Steven Freeman/NBAE via Getty Images)

If the final few possessions of the Indiana game were any indication, the Jazz are clearly the frontrunner for any competition in Late-game Offensive Ineptitude. This is not to criticize any profound, irreversible flaw in the constitution of the team. On the contrary, that the Jazz had fought back into late-game contention with one of the best teams in the NBA is evidence enough of a quality, if overachieving, roster of players.

Conventional wisdom would say that the Jazz owe their late-game struggles to the lack of a go-to guy. Without an alpha male scorer, a team won’t be able to slow down the game, value each possession, turn busted plays into scoring opportunities, etc. Or so says conventional wisdom. (Important clarification: the Go-to Guy is not necessarily the team’s best player; just the player most likely to create his own shot or be used as the decoy in the creation of a shot for a teammate in a late-game scenario). Any analysis of this Jazz team’s Go-to Guy Role would yield ambiguous results at best. Is it Paul Millsap, the team’s only chance at an All-Star this season? Is it Al Jefferson, the high-volume shooter and the default scoring threat when the shot clock is low? Is it Gordon Hayward, the Heroic Symbol for Hope and Future Glory? Or is it Earl Watson? C.J. Miles? (No.) Or even (gasp!) Josh Howard? (Super no.) The mere fact that such an argument would need to occur refutes any potential claim of an existing Go-to Guy. For teams that actually have an Alpha Male Scorer, questions like that are irrelevant, even insulting. If anyone on the Lakers asked that question in the Lakers locker room, he’d instantly wilt and die under the jaw-jutting, soul-piercing glare of one Kobe Bean Bryant.

This leaves Jazz fans, particularly those searching for an optimistic answer to the question, only two options. One, the team needs to acquire or develop such a player, a Clutch Guy. Or two, consider the possibility of late-game success without one. It’s an interesting question, to be sure. Does a team even need a Go-to Guy to contend? As far as I see it, the arguments for and against would break down something like this:

FOR: Every championship-winning team in recent memory had a Go-to Guy. The Mavs had Dirk, the Lakers had Kobe, the Celtics had Pierce, the Spurs had Ginobili, and the Heat had Wade. Even the Pistons, probably the most offensively balanced team to win a championship in the last ten years to win it all, had Chauncey Billups (may his career rest in peace). Furthermore, a go-to guy eliminates confusion in situations where a time-out is impossible or at least impractical. Even without a drawn-up play, every player on the Bulls knows that Derrick Rose is at least going to start with the ball and create the offense in any half-court, late-game situation. For what it’s worth (which probably isn’t very much), the Go-to Guy also adds to the sentimental drama attached to potential buzzer-beaters. Call it the Hollywood Factor.

AGAINST: Statistical evidence, specifically that of TrueHoop creator Henry Abbott, shows that shooting percentages for seemingly “Clutch” players does not actually increase at the end of close games. So despite the aforementioned advantages, having a go-to player in the clutch doesn’t seem to produce any statistical advantage. In response to the litany of championship teams, each of which had such a player, most of those teams enjoyed late-game heroics from their non-go-to players just as often as not. See: Jason Terry during last year’s finals, Derek Fisher against the Spurs in 2004, Robert Horry in 2002,

Those arguments are theoretical and abstract, but the concrete facts are thus: Someone is going to take the last shot. Or even the last few shots. In the NBA, where often the seemingly erratic pulse of of the score loses its energy and flat-lines by the late-fourth quarter, this question matters. On Tuesday night, the only difference between the Utah Jazz and the Indiana Pacers was late-game execution. Interestingly, probably distracted by the offensive failures of the Jazz in the clutch, I initially overlooked that the perfect prototype for a late-game strategy for a team like the Jazz was being executed by their opponent. Consider the Pacers: Sure Danny Granger may be the Go-to Guy, but that’s a “may” at best. The team is built around offensive balance. Down the stretch, I had no idea where the ball was going. If I had been forced to guess, I would have said to Hibbert in the post, because he had been humiliating Big Al all night long.

From the point the Jazz took a three-point lead with 3:47 left, three different Pacers scored (Hibbert, George, Granger and Collison). Two of those buckets were based on the penetrate and kick-out model, one was a post-up by Hibbert, and the other was a mid-range jumper by Granger. What does this show? Versatility. Diversity. Changing the looks. Forcing the defense to respect every player on the court. Especially for a team like the Jazz, this is where conventional wisdom fails and the Go-to Scorer paradigm fails. The Jazz don’t need a Go-to Scorer, they just need offensive sets that will take advantage of defensive miscues. When the defense collapsed on Granger, he kicked it out to a WIDE-OPEN George for a three (a very high-percentage shot for Paul George).

As @Clintonite33 pointed out after the game, this was a learning experience for Corbin as well as the players. He’ll learn, and so will the players. Maybe a Go-to Guy will develop, but even if one doesn’t, this roster is deep, and when the clock is running out, that should be the one advantage Corbin rides.

SALT LAKE CITY (February 8, 2012) – Utah Jazz general manager Kevin O’Connor announced today that the team has agreed to terms with free-agent forward DeMarre Carroll (pronounced Deh-MAR-ay). Per team policy, terms of the deal were not released. Carroll originally began the 2011-12 NBA season with the Denver Nuggets. He is expected to join the Jazz prior to practice Thursday morning.

A 6-8, 212-pound forward out of Missouri, Carroll appeared in four games earlier this season with Denver, averaging 3.0 points in 5.3 minutes before being waived on February 4. Carroll split the 2010-11 campaign between the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets. He also appeared in six games (all starts) last season with the Dakota Wizards of the NBA Development League, averaging 18.3 points and 6.8 rebounds. Originally selected by Memphis in the first round (27th overall) of the 2009 NBA Draft, Carroll spent portions of two seasons with the Grizzlies before being traded to the Rockets on February 24, 2011.

The 25-year-old Birmingham, Ala., native finished his collegiate career at Missouri after spending two years at Vanderbilt. As a senior in 2008-09, he led Missouri to its first Big 12 Tournament title in 16 seasons and a trip to the 2009 NCAA Elite Eight, earning Big 12 Tournament MVP and NCAA All-West Region honors. The forward averaged 16.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists in his final season with the Tigers. Carroll is the nephew of Arkansas head coach Mike Anderson.

The good people at Off the Chest apparel are featuring CJ Miles’ favorite hashtag this week. Show some love and buy the shirt here.

Hit me up if you have a Jazz-related quote or hashtag that should be featured on a shirt and Ross Shapland at Off the Chest will make it happen.

Chris and Ben talk Jazz from 0:00 – 14:00.

Tony talks about covering the visitors’ locker room for Jazz games from 14:00 – 31:00. For some reason I talk about the Team USA players celebrating their Olympic win in 2008 with “the trophy.” Last time I checked, Olympic champions get medals, not trophies.

Skip to about the 31:00 minute mark and listen to the end for spectacular appearances by Fake Kevin O’Connor, Fake Hot Rod Hundley, and especially Fake Marv Albert.

Thanks to everybody for jumping on, as well as to 1320′s Austin Horton for production.

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Update:

To better illustrate what Chris is talking about, @chaseames pointed out this clip of Hayward’s legendary game against the Lakers last season:

Chase agrees with Chris that Hayward should be the primary ball handler. As John Hollinger has pointed out, Hayward sometimes get caught running the “pick and nothing.” With the ball in his control he seems to thrive and have much more confidence.