Position-by-Position Analysis of the Utah Jazz

May 25th, 2011 by K.Malphurs

The great question every time the NBA draft rolls around is whether to draft the best player available or the player that fulfills the biggest need? Most teams today follow the Best Player Available philosophy, a direct result of the Portland Trail Blazers famously passing over one Michael Jordan in the 1984 draft. After Akeem Olajuwan went first to the Rockets, the Blazers took center Sam Bowie because they already had two solid shooting guards in Jim Paxon and a young Clyde Drexler. No team wants to make that mistake again.

Picking the Best Player Available, however, has always been a very subjective and error-prone affair.

In 2005 the Atlanta Hawks had Josh Childress, Al Harrington, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith as four wings who were 6-8/6-9 in height. Their point guards were Tony Delk and Tyronn Lue. Going into the draft they had an obvious need at point guard, but choose 6-9 small forward Marvin Williams. The Hawks must have thought that Williams was the Best Player Available because the next two draft picks were point guards Deron Williams and Chris Paul. In this case, the Hawks not only missed out on filling a need, they also missed out on better players available.

This year’s draft class is full of unproven, inexperienced players like Enes Kanter and Brandon Knight. It’s hard enough to statistically evaluate any one-and-done player, but what to do with a player like Kanter who had a non-season at Kentucky?

Given the difficulty in finding best player in this year’s draft, let’s highlight the biggest needs for the Jazz. I took a look at the players, contracts and production per position and ranked them in order of team strength. In the rankings I include the PER difference by position as found on 82games.com. This shows us the Jazz player production by position compared to their opponents. Below is a ranking of the team’s strengths, so to find the team’s biggest needs we take the inverse ranking.

1. Power Forward: +2.1 PER difference.

  • Paul Millsap (2 years/$7M per year)
  • Derrick Favors (4 years /$5.8M per year)
  • Jeremy Evans (1 year at $788K).
  • Analysis: This position is full of young, talented, players, and all three are signed to team-friendly contracts. The Jazz are stocked with power forwards that they should build around.

2. Center: +2.4 PER difference.

  • Al Jefferson (2 years/$14.5M per year)
  • Mehmet Okur (1 year at $10.9M).
  • Analysis: It was a little bit of a surprise to see the center position ranked ahead of the power forwards with a +2.4 PER difference. Still, I can’t rank the center position as a bigger strength than the power forward position because of a few factors: age, salary and growth potential. Jefferson and Okur are older, more expensive and don’t  have as much room to grow as the Millsap/Favors/Evans group. Even though this is a position of strength it doesn’t mean the Jazz couldn’t use help there. Neither Jefferson or Okur are known for their defense, and it would be extremely valuable to have a defensive presence at the 5 position. A defensive-minded center would do wonders to improve the 24th ranked defense. Did you ever think we’d reach the day when Jazz fans are nostalgic for the Greg Ostertag Era?

3. Small Forward: +0.9 PER difference.

  • C.J. Miles (1 year at $3.7M)
  • Gordon Hayward (4 years/$3.3M a year).
  • Analysis: Both Miles and Hayward could be considered shooting guards, but I went with the position that they played the greatest percentage of minutes. This also happened to the position of Andrei Kirilenko, who is a free agent this year after his max contract finally expired. Kirilenko’s status is still up in the air, but my guess is that he won’t be with the Jazz next year. Still, this position isn’t terrible, especially considering the assumption Miles (still only 24) and Hayward (21) will improve with age. I have my doubts about both players, even considering some of the great games both had at the end of the year.

4. Point Guard: -2.2 PER difference.

  • Devin Harris (2 years/$8.9M a year).
  • Analysis: Was it really only a year and a half ago that the PG spot was most solid position on the team? The Jazz had a long-term star in Deron Williams and a capable backup with Eric Maynor. Now that the dust has settled on the implosion of last year’s team, all that’s left are two expensive years of Devin Harris (and draft picks!). Neither Ronnie Price or Earl Watson are signed with the Jazz for next season and really, does it matter if either one comes back? The Jazz desperately need a backup (or replacement) for Harris, especially considering his injury history. More likely they will use this draft to find a more capable, long-term solution.

5. Shooting Guard: -4.7 PER difference.

The biggest shortcoming of the Jazz’s shooting guard rotation (which also included Ronnie Price as part of a small second-team lineup with Earl Watson) was inaccurate shooting. Despite attempting a combined 7.3 3-pointers a night, the three players shot just 32.8 percent from beyond the arc, well below league average (35.8 percent). Since Bell — under contract through 2012-13 — isn’t getting any younger, Utah will likely exercise the team option on Miles’ deal and hope he can grow into a starting position.

It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that shooting guard is the biggest position of need. The Jazz need someone on the wing to knock down open shots and also somebody who can defend enough to keep the Kobe Bryants and D-Wades of the NBA from circling the calendar when they see Utah. Easier written about than accomplished, of course, but the Jazz absolutely must improve in all aspects at this position.

Use these numbers as your guide as you play armchair GM.

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Morning After Drill: Dreaming Up – The 2011 NBA Draft Lottery

May 18th, 2011 by Jeff Lind

I think we’ve all come to terms with the overall “meh” that is this 2011 NBA draft. It’s a two horse race, and the rest of the field is full of GM landmines. I mean, we have a Turkish player that hasn’t played a single competitive game in the last year being discussed as a top pick! Some of these players will certainly be good, but it’s hard to say ANY (besides maybe Irving) will be no-lose great. So, why wouldn’t the Utah Jazz use all their luck this year and get saddled with the number 3 pick? Your guess is as good as mine.

So, here we are… the Jazz have the 3 and 12 picks and need to make some magic happen. It’s a rebuild year, so they can’t afford not to have a successful draft… but it’s dicey at best. What do they do? Here’s my take on the two picks the morning after:

The 12: I don’t see a scenario where the Jazz don’t take Jimmer Fredette if he’s available. Right now, Chad Ford has Jimmer heading to the Suns at 13 (Sam Amick of SI has him going 22 to the Nuggets), but I think the Jazz grab him first. Here’s why:

  1. He’s a player and a winner. I know he played almost NO defense in college, but he was mandated to save energy for offense. The Jazz definitely need defense, but they desperately need someone that can create offense and shots off the dribble, and Jimmer can create. It’s rare, but Jimmer is the kind of player that is a threat as soon as he steps across the half court line.
  2. He is a goldmine. You thought Kyle Korver sold jerseys? All Kyle did was kinda look like a Mormon. I don’t think any of us have a barometer for what an actual Mormon kid can do in the Salt Lake market. He’s the Tim Tebow of the NBA draft, and whatever team picks him will sell a bajillion jerseys, put butts in chairs, and will whip the fan hypemachine into a lathered frenzy. All of which will be compounded if he goes to the Jazz.  Don’t underestimate the importance of any of those three items to a small market team that is in the throes of rebuilding.

Is he a long term solution? Can he play in the NBA? Is he too slow for the 1, but too small for the 2? I don’t know. All I know is that the talent disparity between Jimmer and anyone else in this draft at a relative position to his is not great. If the Jazz do end up keeping the 12, I’m willing to take a flyer on a kid that is going to keep the franchise I love alive during rebuild years.

[Saying all of that, remember that the Pacers once had a similar situation. They made the hard choice and took a pass at the 11th pick on hometown hero Steve Alford (Yes... the same Alford that was mixed up in BYU trouble last year). Fans were LIVID that the franchise didn't pick the New Castle, Indiana native. In the end they got over it... since the Pacers ultimately passed over Alford for the Knick slayer himself: Reggie Miller. Yikes.]

 

Getty Images

The 3: This pick depends on one horrifying thing… David Kahn. The Minnesota Timberwolves notorious GM (who  is STILL dealing with the sins of his past picks) may be the Jazz’ great hope, or great destroyer. Make no mistake, the Jazz want Derrick Williams. He’s a talented (near) can’t-miss type that shoots well, is NBA ready (well… as close as anyone in this draft), and can be a viable wing for the team. Williams would immediately address one of the team’s greatest needs, but unfortunately, every draft board I’ve looked at has him going at 2 to the Wolves. BUT, if there’s one GM that will either A) trade this pick, or B) screw this pick up, it’s David Kahn. Hooray! Here’s the good, bad and lucky of the 3 pick:

  • The good: Chad Ford says “I’m already hearing from sources that Minnesota has told people it’s very open to moving the second pick. Kahn really wants to add some veteran help to the team.” Well, the Jazz have veterans, and need that 2 spot. My hope would be that the Jazz package a current vet, and maybe the 12 or 3 pick and jump to the 2 (Millsap?).
  • The bad: Other, more desperate teams want that 2 pick. If the Jazz don’t end up landing it, they are the team on the outside looking in. The 3 pick will probably ultimately turn into Brandon Knight – a fine player, but not AMAZING, or Enes Kanter…  the Turkish tough guy who hasn’t played a competitive basketball game in over a year (yep… your 2011 NBA draft, folks). I doubt the Jazz take Kanter, since they already have 5 guys that can play his position, and what are they going to do with minutes in that situation, but you never know. Kanter has more upside than nearly anyone else 3-10 in this draft.
  • The lucky: If David Kahn chooses Enes Kanter at 2 and Derrick Williams falls into the Jazz’ lap… pretty sure that’s a guarantee.

As a basketball fan, you really can’t complain about moving up in the draft, but if you’re going to pick a draft to move up in, this was not the one to do it. It will be interesting to see if Kevin O’Connor can make some magic happen, and more than almost any other GM – he has incentive. The Jazz lost the AMAZING Williams and HOF Sloan on his watch. Well O’Connor, it’s your time to shine. Time to make us believers. Prove to Jazz fans that you made the right moves last year. Right now, the jury is out… and Kevin is on the clock. We’re all dreaming up.

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Getting ready for the draft lottery

May 16th, 2011 by K.Malphurs

In the past 25 years have the Jazz had a more important draft than the 2011 draft?

There was the 2004 draft with 3 first round picks that ended up being Kris Humphries (right before Al Jefferson), Kirk Snyder (right before Josh Smith) and Pavel Podkolzin (right after Jameer Nelson). That draft the Jazz would have done better throwing darts. There were 8 players picked in between the Jazz 14th pick and 21st pick. Below are those 8 players sorted by minutes played in the NBA.

In the 2004 draft the Jazz didn’t draft one player that helped the franchise out, which is even more upsetting considering the talent that was available. Besides the names above they also didn’t draft Delonte West, Tony Allen and Kevin Martin.

The 2004 draft was a failure, which led the way to the 2005 draft including a high lottery pick. This draft was the complete opposite of the 2005 draft as the Jazz smartly moved up to draft Deron Williams, and also got a relative steal in C.J. Miles in the 2nd round. This draft has to be in consideration for most important Jazz drafts in the team’s history. It led to four playoff appearances, which included a spot in the Western Conference Finals in 2007.

 
Those would be the only two drafts that could be argued to be more important than this upcoming draft. For a team that rarely has a lottery pick (4 over the last 25 years) this year is unique in that the team has two lottery picks. Of course it happens to be during one of the more maligned draft classes in recent history, but that doesn’t mean the Jazz can’t find some value.

 
There will be time for draft analysis, but first let’s see where the Jazz end up picking. They have a 8.3% chance of getting the 1st pick and a 27.9% chance of getting a top 3 pick. They are most likely to end up with the 6th and 12th pick, but Jazz fans can hope for good luck tomorrow night. After that there will be time to talk about what the Jazz should do as they try to prevent themselves from becoming a team is used to being in New Jersey during the NBA playoffs.

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Off-Season Decisions for the Utah Jazz – Part 2 of 4

May 12th, 2011 by Jeff Lind

[Editor's Note: As the playoffs move forward, we continue to discuss the future of the Utah Jazz. Nick Smith joins Salt City Hoops to chat current players. Who stays, who goes, and how bright are their respective futures? Join us for part 2 of this 4 part series. - JL]

Devin Harris – 6’3 PG

Ksl.com

Current Contract Situation. Harris is under contract next season with the Jazz for $9,319,000. His contract will then expire after the 2012/2013 season where he will collect $8.5 million.

Future with the Jazz. Devin Harris has been a player the Jazz have hoped to land since his days in Dallas. They like his quickness, good attitude, and pesky defense. Harris was an all-star in 2009, but since that time, the injury prone point guard’s game has regressed. It’ll be interesting to see if being back in a winning atmosphere can return Harris’ game to a high level. The Jazz were 7-10 with Harris in their lineup, which doesn’t sound like much, but overall it is much better than where they were without him. He also deserves credit for doing a good job of coming in and playing his game and not trying to do the impossible in replacing Deron Williams. Watch for an improved defensive game and a nice increase to his 5 APG career average. Although I see this Ludacris look-alike returning to the lineup next year (his contract is too affordable), he could potentially be a player the Jazz end up packaging alongside a draft pick to either move up in the draft or to acquire other assets.

Fransisco Elson – 7-0 C

AP Associated Press

Current Contract Situation. Fransisco Elson signed a one-year deal with the Jazz last off-season for the veteran’s minimum $1,146,337. He is now a free agent.

Future with the Jazz. This was likely the one and only season Elson will play for the Jazz. When healthy, Elson is a big man who runs the floor very well, brings toughness to the court, and can occasionally hit the outside jumper. If the Jazz enter next season needing to add another big man, fans shouldn’t be totally opposed to Elson grabbing that 12th roster spot. Elson has championship experience, and his good attitude and veteran leadership make him an affordable mentor for some of the Jazz’ younger players. Saying that, father time has taken his toll on Elson, and the 35 year-old has struggled to stay healthy. With the addition of Derrick Favors, and the possibility of one of the Jazz’ two draft picks being a big man, I see Elson as the odd man out for next year’s roster. It may just come down to Fesenko or Elson, and with the Sisco Kid’s age, I imagine the Jazz decide in favor of the Ukrainian.

Al Jefferson – 6’10 PF/C

Courtside

Current Contract Situation. Al Jefferson has two more years left on his current deal. He will make $14,000,000 next year and $15,000,000 during the 2012/2013 season.

Future with the Jazz. Big Al’s first year with the Jazz was a tale of two halves. The first half of the season Jefferson struggled to be consistent and figure out the flex offense, while the second half of the season he was the 20 and 10 type player Jazz fans had hoped for. While the increase in productivity was great to see, there was a disconnect between the Jazz’ success and Big Al’s. At age 26, it’s fair to say that Jefferson’s best years are still ahead of him, but a major concern still exists, namely: can he be a star on a winning team? With a sample size of 7 seasons, Jefferson hasn’t been on a team with a winning record once. In fact, the only three month period in which he was on a winning team he struggled to play well. Unfortunately for Jefferson, statistics show that the amount of points he scores in games has a negative correlation with how much his team is winning. During his short time with the Jazz (and in his defense), roster changes and injuries were more to blame for the team losing than Big Al’s lack of effort, or leadership. He showed huge heart the second half of the year. He mentioned that he came to Utah for three reasons; to play for Coach Sloan, to play alongside Deron, and to finally be on a winning team. At the end of the season, Jefferson didn’t have any of those to hang his hat on. Instead, he was back on a losing team that decided to begin re-building midway through his first season. He had every right to be disappointed, but he continued to work hard to improve his game.  Look for Jefferson to continue his improvement while he gets more comfortable in the Jazz’ system. Also, Derrick Favors’ length and athleticism should make Al’s job on defense much easier than playing alongside the undersized Millsap. As for his future, I don’t see the Jazz moving Jefferson. Hopefully his game will further adjust to fit what the Jazz need from their big man, and if the team can add some shooters, his job of scoring in the paint will be easier than it has been. With multiple draft picks and other uprising young players, there should be plenty of talent to help Al Jefferson buck his reputation of being the cause for bad teams.

Watch for article number three later this week as I take a close look at the decisions awaiting the next group of Jazz men; Earl Watson, Raja Bell, Ronnie Price, and Kyrylo Fesenko.

PART 1

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Off-season Decisions for the Utah Jazz – Part 1 of 4

May 6th, 2011 by Jeff Lind

[Editor's Note: As the playoffs move forward, we continue to discuss the future of the Utah Jazz. Nick Smith joins Salt City Hoops to chat current players. Who stays, who goes, and how bright are their respective futures? Join us for part 1 of this 4 part series. - JL]

The 2010-2011 season is officially over for the Jazz, and now it’s time to shift our attention to the many important decisions that await the Jazz front office. General Manager Kevin O’Connor did not hesitate when admitting the upcoming draft is the most important in Jazz history, but the draft still months away! Let’s talk current players. My last article discussed the bright future of the Jazz considering their young talent and multiple draft picks, but what I failed to mention is financially healthy the Jazz are going forward. With Andrei Kirilenko’s enormous contract coming off the books, the Jazz have a significant amount of cap space. Off-season signings and trades will not happen until a new Collective Bargaining Agreement can be agreed upon between the league’s owners and players, but with the NBA as popular as it was this season, the looming lockout could be shorter than we think and personnel decisions for the Jazz are (optimistically) right around the corner. This series of articles will discuss each player’s current contract situation with the Jazz and what decisions to expect the Jazz to make. We’ll feature players in order of tenure with the Jazz, newest to oldest, while tiebreakers go to tenure in the league. This article features rookie Jazz men Jeremy Evans, Gordon Hayward, and Derrick Favors.

Jeremy Evans – 6’10 F

Jeffrey D. Allred, Deseret News

Current Contract Situation: Jeremy Evans is under contract next season for an extremely affordable $788,872. Although he’ll still be the lowest paid player on the Jazz, it’s a nice 67% increase in pay for the second year player.

Future with the Jazz: Evans is a freak athlete who jumps higher and faster than anyone else I’ve seen in the league. What’s perhaps most impressive about the young kid is he already has a sound understanding of how to use his athleticism to create scoring and rebounding opportunities. This understanding helped mask his severe weight problem (think the opposite direction of Oliver Miller) which will be instrumental in his developing into a real player. That’s’ a big if, but with the rookie pay scale for 2nd round draft picks awfully team friendly, I doubt the Jazz will pass on the opportunity to see what this kid can do with an entire off-season to prepare. For a cool $800k and for being the best friend to one of the Jazz’ future franchise players, expect to see the human pogo stick back in uniform next season.

Best case scenario: Shawn Marion, Thaddeus Young

Worst case scenario: Jared Jeffries

Likely scenario: Luc Richard Mbah A Moute

Gordon Hayward – 6’8 G/SF

Getty Images

Current Contract Situation. Hayward is under contract next season for $2,532,960, with team options of $2.7 million and $3.4 million for seasons 2012/2013 and 2013/2014, respectively.

Future with the Jazz. The Jazz’ group of untouchable players is very small. In fact, by my count it stops at two. Gordon Hayward’s strong all-around play at the end of last season made him one of them. During the last two weeks of the season, Hayward showed that he could be special in this league. He has surprising athletic tools, a great work ethic, and an unbelievable basketball IQ. As a 21 year old rookie, Gordon can shoot the three, defend dynamic perimeter players, and is an exceptional passer. Jazz fans hope to see an uptick in his consistency, and his ability to finish at the rim. The Jazz desperately need him to contribute every night as a legitimate driving threat. No question G-Time will be back with the Jazz next season, and hopefully many more to come.

Best case scenario: Brandon Roy-like (pre-knee surgeries)

Worst case scenario: Mike Dunleavy

Likely scenario: Don’t kill me for this, but… Wesley Matthews?

Derrick Favors – 6’10 PF

Yahoo Sports

Current Contract Situation. Favors is under contract next season for $4,443,360 with team options of $4.75 million and $6.01 million for seasons 2012/2013 and 2013/2014, respectively.

Future with the Jazz. Remember that two-man list of untouchables? If begins at Hayward and ends at Derrick Favors. Favors is a young talent that also started playing especially well toward the end of the season. He showed great signs of development and got better every game he played. In Favors’ 22 appearances with the Jazz, he averaged 8.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 1.2 BPG, all while only playing 20 MPG. If you were to adjust Favors’ stats for starters minutes, he would already be nearly averaging 16, 10 and 2! The most impressive aspect is that Derrick has yet to develop any real offensive moves. All of his production is coming from raw athletic ability and sound fundamentals. Once he couples his athleticism with some offensive prowess, the sky is the limit. Look for Favors to improve his defensive ability (without fouling), building a back-to-the-basket game, and an increase his FT%. I expect Favors to be the Jazz’ Most Improved Player for next season. As for the future, get used to seeing Derrick in a Jazz jersey.

Best case scenario: Amar’e Stoudemire

Worst case scenario: Stromile Swift

Likely scenario: Al Horford

Watch for article number two next week as we take a close look at the decisions awaiting the next group of rookie Jazz men Devin Harris, Al Jefferson, and Fransisco Elson.

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